Monday, October 18

Calling Iowa, Ohio, and Florida, please come in!

If anyone wants to help defeat Bush, don't whine to your friends and neighbors, make some phone calls. And no, not angry calls to Bush supporters who you won't convince. You'll be calling Kerry supporters, making sure they're going to vote, and convincing them to hit the streets and canvas door to door (one of the few proven methods.)

How much do you affect the election by getting out the vote? Where are your efforts most valuable?This question can be answered by calculating how much the Electoral College win probability is changed by one person's vote. Today the best states to go to are Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. Nevada, while small, is on the list because it is a near-tossup and relatively few voters per electoral vote. Here is a case study. If you are a New Jersey resident, your vote has some value, but it is low since the state is very likely to go Democratic by a substantial margin. In contrast, driving a voter to the polls in Pennsylvania is worth nearly 300 times as much. If you go to Ohio each vote is worth even more, over 500 "jerseyvotes." The top states are IA (686 jerseyvotes), OH (528), NV (508), FL (372), NM (304), WI (295), PA (295), MO (199), AR (151).
Meta-Analysis of State Polls blog from Princeton University